After a ‘quite’ spell of nearly dry weather over the state for the last four days, some monsoon showers are expected today. However, these short lived showers will get subdued tomorrow and decrease further in the subsequent 48hr. Some decent showers are expected towards the fag end of the month.
Kerala is one of the rainiest state, but has not lived up to the expectations of the season. Monsoon onset as such started on a weak note. Rains were inadequate and infrequent. Monsoon also had a long pause over Goa, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. The state incurred large deficiency of 52% rainfall in the month of June.
Core monsoon month of July was not as disappointing as June, to start with. Some good showers in the 1st week dropped the deficiency to 33%. The 2nd week between 07th and 13th July rained quite well. The state recorded weekly rainfall of 214.6mm against a normal of 155.9mm, an excess of 38%. This also dragged the rainfall deficiency to with in normal range of 15%. However, the weak phase of monsoon for the last 4 days has mounted the shortfall again to about 20%.
There is no major weather system giving any hopes of prolonged decent rains for the state. There is a feeble trough across South Interior Karnataka to Comorin region. Convergence of westerly winds from the Arabian Sea along with trough may give scattered moderate showers over the next 24hr. This short spell will get diffused in the subsequent 24hr and minimal rains later on 24thand 25thJuly.
There is likelihood of a freak weather system coming up over the Southwest Bay of Bengal. A cyclonic circulation, starting from South Central Bay of Bengal may reach over the coastal parts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, between 28th and 31stJuly. The system may not penetrate deep over land but the peripheral confluence over the state of Kerala may provide satisfactory showers to break the jinx of dry spell.
