Skymet Weather Services Private Limited, India’s leading weather analytics firm, had released its monsoon foreshadow for 2021 on April 13, 2021 and is now updating the forecast. Skymet believes that there is a 60% chance of below normal, forecasting Monsoon to be at 94% of the long period average with an error margin of +/- 4% (LPA= 880.6mm for the 4 month period from June to September.
The Southwest Monsoon had a timely onset and made a good start with June ending above normal at 110% of the long period average (LPA). July started on a weak note and the month was marred with a pronged break till 11th July. Therefore, the month finished with below-normal rainfall at 93% of LPA. June and July ended with 110% and 93% of LPA against Skymet’s forecast of 106% and 97% respectively.
The Southwest Monsoon encountered the 2nd ‘break monsoon’ phase during the 1st fortnight of August. Extended weak monsoon conditions resulted in Pan-India seasonal rainfall deficiency settling at 9% till the middle of August. The below normal status of monsoon has not improved till now.
In terms of geographical risk, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha, Kerala, and Northeast India are likely to be hit with deficient rains. The chance of drought over Gujarat and West Rajasthan appears imminent. However, the spatial distribution of rainfall over the rainfed areas of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh has been adequate. Accordingly, the food production in the agri bowl of central parts may not be stressed and skewed.
According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet," the weakness in the Monsoon could possibly be attributed to the prolonged -ve phase of IOD in the Indian Ocean and extended break conditions in July and August. There is still no clear signal about the emergence of IOD in September".
Considering the present scenario, Skymet Weather has revised the forecast for Monsoon 2021 to 94 percent of the LPA. On monthly basis, the Monsoon forecast ( assuming an error margin of +/-4%) is as follows:
August - 80% of LPA (LPA for August = 258.2 mm)
- 80% chance of deficit
- 20% chance of below normal
September - 100% of LPA (LPA for September = 170.2 mm)
- 60% chance of normal
- 20% chance of above normal
- 20% chance of below normal
According to Skymet’s calculations (assuming an error margin of +/- 4% ), the following is the Monsoon risk for the season 2021:
- 20% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall being less than 90% of LPA)
- 60% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall being between 90-95% of LPA)
- 10% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall being less than 96-104% of LPA)
- 10% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall being 105-110% of LPA)
- 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall being more than 110% of LPA)
About Skymet Weather
Skymet Weather is India's largest weather monitoring and agri-risk solutions company. The only private weather forecasting agency in India, Skymet Weather, was established in 2003 and has been known for providing reliable and accessible weather forecasts since then. Skymet runs its own numeric weather prediction models and provides an array of weather-based services through data and information tools. It uses innovation to provide weather forecast to power companies, media conglomerates, farmer innovation services, agricultural input producers and logistics operators. It has pioneered uses for long-range Monsoon weather forecasts, satellite remote sensing technologies and unmanned aerial vehicles in India.
