According to Skymet, the revised Monsoon forecast stands at 98% of LPA (error margin of +/-4%) for JJAS, and the probabilities are:
• 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
• 0% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% OF LPA)
• 63% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
• 35% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
• 2% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)
On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:
June Observed: 116% of LPA (LPA = 164 mm)
• 43% area of the country is Normal
• 52% area of the country is Excess
• 5% area of country is Deficit
July Observed: 84% of LPA (LPA = 289 mm)
• 45% area of the country is Normal
• 28% area of the country is Excess
• 27% area of country is Deficit
August Forecast: 92% of LPA (LPA = 261 mm)
(error margin of +/-9%)
September Forecast: 112% of LPA (LPA = 173 mm)
(error margin of +/-9%)
To download Skymet's Monsoon Foreshadow report, click here ( PDF | PPT )
Also read: [CEO's Take] Revised forecast for Monsoon 2015
