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Southwest Monsoon 'Break Even' Record : June May End With Surplus Rainfall

June 23, 2022 12:50 PM |

Southwest monsoon has balanced out the seasonal  rainfall achieving zero-zero as on 22ndJune 2022. Despite early arrival, the monsoon  made a sputtering start having slow pace and sluggish progress.  However, tiding over the early hiccups, it has managed to score the average rainfall.  Between 01st – 22nd June, pan India rainfall is 105.8mm against the normal of 106mm, thereby registering  zero surplus/deficiency.

Earlier, the onset phase made a limping start and accrued high rainfall deficiency of 43%, between 01st and 11thJune. Recovery started noticeably from 15thJune onward and continues till date. 16th, 17th and 19thJune were the rainiest, in that order recovering large chunk of shortfall.

Though, the monsoon rainfall has turned normal, the distribution pattern remains skewed. The recovery is largely attributed to flooding rains over Northeast India and partially to decent pre monsoon showers over hills and plains of North India in the 3rd week of June. Excess rain over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya has done more ‘damage’ than any ‘good’.  Even after betterment, eastern states and the central parts have huge shortages. West Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha have rainfall deficiency of nearly  35-40%. Entire state of Maharashtra is lurching with large shortfalls and Madhya Maharashtra leads the table with arrears of 61%. State of Gujarat is no better and suffers inadequacy of over 50%. Down south, most sub-divisions have bettered their performance except Kerala, a state on India’s tropical Malabar Coast, struggling with scarcity of 58%. Over northwest India, Uttar Pradesh is the worst performer with a paucity of 76%. Among the hilly states, Uttrakhand reels under big loss of about 58%.

From the analysis, inference is very clear.  Statistically, seasonal rainfall did break even but suffers from unequitable distribution of rainfall. The rainfed areas of central parts including Maharashtra and Gujarat face the scare of parched conditions, detrimental for the agricultural activities. This may as well lead to shift of crop cycle or even change of crop.

Last week of June and 1st week of July are indicating better prospects for the regions, where the rains are needed the most. Series of cyclonic circulations originating over Odisha, in the proximity of Bay of Bengal and moving across the central parts are promising better quantum and decent distribution of rainfall.  These will be instrumental to take the monsoon further over North India, right up to the last post of Rajasthan, without much delay.

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