Spring Barrier: Not a right time to read El Nino

February 24, 2020 8:48 AM |

el nino and spring

Enter March and Spring season is knocking the door. The season has a unique relation with El Niño. With Monsoon season not far away, meteorologists across the world starts tapping Nino indices as early as in January. But then comes the spring. You must be wondering about what is so special about the season and its co-relation with the world's most deadliest oceanic phenomenon.

Well in the world of meteorology, we call this season a 'Spring barrier'. A term used for ENSO predictions, it is the time when El Niño reading go for a toss. The reading which we get during this period are considered to be superficial and are not close to the real figures.

Normally, the result derived by the weather models is better and best when closest to the period of forecast. However, this is not true for ENSO forecast during the spring.

According to Skymet Weather, Spring season marks the shifting of sun from Southern Hemisphere to Northern Hemisphere. The sun crosses the Equator around March 20, which is known as 'Spring Equinox'. With this, water starts heating up with sun drawing closer. As per weathermen, rise in the sea surface temperatures reduces its gradient during this phase. This leads to weaker coupling between ocean and atmosphere. Therefore, the weather models find it harder to make an accurate forecast for El Niño conditions.

Reading the meteorological conditions and subsequent predictability of numerical models is lowest during the spring. Accordingly, ENSO signal go low and noise for the model is high As a result, predictability suffers and accuracy drops.

After the spring season is over, the ability of models to predict sharpens and rises substantially as by then sun has moved northwards, bringing down the temperatures once again.

Often El Niño and La Niña, which is of 12 months duration, generally peak during the winter months and decay thereafter during the spring. Spring is a transition time when the Nino Oceanic index inches towards neutral. However we must say that there are no definite answers or explanations as to why spring barrier exists.

Image Credit: NDTV

Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com







For accurate weather forecast and updates, download Skymet Weather (Android App | iOS App) App.

Weather Forecast

Other Latest Stories




Weather on Twitter
उत्तर-पश्चिम दिशा से चलने वाली तेज़ हवाओं के चलते पंजाब, हरियाणा, दिल्ली, उत्तरी राजस्थान और पश्चिमी उत्तर प्रदेश… t.co/D5iosNptO0
Wednesday, January 22 18:01Reply
#Lahore saw something mysterious, and no it wasn’t a UFO, it was an o-shaped black #cloud. Both the netizens had se… t.co/oCIaBUnj5i
Wednesday, January 22 17:36Reply
उत्तर भारत में सिर्फ कश्मीर पर होगी वर्षा और बर्फबारी। हिमाचल और उत्तराखंड समेत मैदानी इलाकों में मौसम शुष्क रहने… t.co/a1eTGezmvH
Wednesday, January 22 17:24Reply
वैष्णो देवी और आसपास के भागों में 23 जनवरी तक मौसम साफ रहेगा। लेकिन 24 जनवरी की रात तक एक नया पश्चिमी विक्षोभ दस्तक… t.co/XIFsJswiMK
Wednesday, January 22 16:40Reply
23 से 25 जनवरी के बीच उत्तर पश्चिमी दिशा से आने वाली तेज़ हवाओं के कारण दिन और रात के तापमान में गिरावट होगी। 28 जन… t.co/oLIboYkfl8
Wednesday, January 22 14:45Reply
राष्ट्रीय राजधानी क्षेत्र में बुधवार की सुबह घने कोहरे और तापमान में गिरावट के साथ हुई है। आज सुबह दिल्ली और आसपास… t.co/MOnVxIjOgs
Wednesday, January 22 14:30Reply
The January surplus for #Uttarakhand could rise further considering there is a forecast of #WesternDisturbance betw… t.co/Xr7XRkSKuY
Wednesday, January 22 14:23Reply
उत्तर भारत में पंजाब से लेकर हरियाणा, दिल्ली, उत्तर प्रदेश और बिहार में रह घना कोहरा। सड़कों से लेकर ट्रेन और हवाई… t.co/zuWWcHHSZm
Wednesday, January 22 14:15Reply
For those who haven’t yet got a chance to enjoy the snowfall in picturesque #Uttarakhand can hit the hills of… t.co/EGOpqR4abm
Wednesday, January 22 14:07Reply
According to senior meteorologists at Skymet, #Uttarakhand can expect more tourism as #snowfall in the state is exp… t.co/HO53MY2I4U
Wednesday, January 22 14:00Reply

latest news

Skymet weather

Download the Skymet App

Our app is available for download so give it a try