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Subdued Mumbai Monsoon During First Week, Catch Up Later In June: Coincidence Or A Pattern

June 9, 2022 8:00 AM |

Mumbai has not received any rain in the 1st week of June 2022. Mostly clear sky, above normal temperature, warm and sultry weather and no rainfall has been the hallmark between 01st-08th June. Pre- Monsoon showers are inching closer to the financial capital, albeit non-disruptive, fleeting, and patchy in nature. A partly cloudy sky, strong sea breeze, and passing showers are expected over the city and suburbs over the next 3days. This twist in the weather conditions will pave way for the monsoon stream to reach Mumbai in the subsequent 3-4 days.

A small-scale cyclonic circulation has formed, off the Konkan coast in the Arabian Sea. It is a weak system and is likely to last for merely 48hrs. The circulation will drift away from the coast and also weaken subsequently. However, the weather system will change the wind pattern along Konkan Coast and the flow will become predominantly westerly, a sign of monsoon incursion.

Having no rains or only light showers during the first 10 days of June, need not be construed as poor monsoon during the opening month of the season.  On earlier such occasions, Mumbai rains caught up on later dates, particularly during the 3rd and 4th weeks.  Similarly, subdued monsoon rains during the 1st week were witnessed in 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019 and now in 2022.  It could be a sheer coincidence or maybe a pattern of having poor rains in the opening week, every 3 years but blasting later during 2nd half of the month.

The normal rainfall of Mumbai ( Santacruz ) for June is 493.1mm. Monsoon has invariably arrived between 09th and 15th June on most occasions. Docile pre-monsoon showers during the first 10 days do not spoil the prospectus of an overflowing June. Even, a weak start has all the chances to catch up later, with an equal possibility of excess rains as happened in the recent times.             

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