As predicted by Skymet, a cyclonic circulation has come up over the Lakshadweep area, off the Kerala and Karnataka coast. Conditions now seem favourable for the onset of Southwest Monsoon within next 2 days. Southwesterly winds will also start blowing over the area shortly.
The coastal areas of Kerala and Karnataka will receive good showers during next 48 hours. Few pockets could receive heavy showers as well.
Weather agencies across the world have different opinion about the system’s development and progress. The weather models are not in agreement with each other, in terms of the cyclonic circulation’s track and strength. The system is undergoing huge variations at the moment, in fact significant changes are taking place.
Going by one prediction, we can say that the cyclonic circulation could strengthen into a depression and then subsequently to a tropical cyclone. Thereafter, it will drift away towards Oman.
According to another prediction, the circulation will become more marked and move along the West Coast, enhancing rainfall along the coast.
According to Skymet, the cyclonic circulation is at a position wherein it could turn into a tropical storm and threaten Pakistan or Gujarat coast. Alternatively, the system could recurve towards Oman after developing into a storm. Wherever the system goes, it will draw all the energy from the Monsoon current and weaken the Monsoon surge over the mainland of India, if it develops into a storm. Thus rainfall will reduce in the initial phase after the onset of Monsoon.
As of now, this system will help in ushering the much-awaited onset of Monsoon in India within next 48 hours.