Northeast Monsoon usually marks its arrival around October 20, with a variation of about five days before or after. Since the year 2007, there have been only two occasions when Northeast Monsoon has arrived before October 20. One of them being in the year 2014 when Northeast Monsoon came on October 18 and in 2012 Northeast Monsoon made an onset on October 19.
Northeast Monsoon generally arrives beyond October 20, in fact, in the last three years, Northeast Monsoon has made an onset during the fag end of the month of October. Last year, Northeast Monsoon had made an onset on October 27. This time, Northeast Monsoon is expected to make an onset around the same time as 2017.
Earlier, indications had come up for an early onset of Northeast Monsoon but Cyclone Titli took the onset current for quite a long time. Thereafter, no effective systems were seen to have made the arrival happen before its usual time.
This time, due to the onset around the last week of October Northeast Monsoon may become truncated and only have November and December. Though the onset is set to be in the fag end of October, rains have been occurring even before that in October. Tamil Nadu has been the main beneficiary wherein good rains have been witnessed along with a few spells of heavy showers over the state of Kerala. Moreover, good rains in Tamil Nadu suffice to declare the onset of Northeast Monsoon over Peninsular India.
On the other hand, Coastal Andhra Pradesh has been rain deficient to the tune of 65 percent along with Rayalaseema witnessing a deficiency of a whopping 50 percent in the month of October. During the next few days, heavy rainfall activity will take a backseat.
Ushering in of the Northeast Monsoon will take place around October 26, which might not be with a bang, but good showers are still expected. Good burst of rains is only likely around the fag end of the month.
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