This year monsoon arrived over Kerala before time. But monsoon onset remained subdued. Between June 1 and June 3, the country is deficient by 35%. We can leave aside the rain statistics of Central and Northwest India as these regions are still waiting for monsoon rains.
Northeast India is deficient by just 7%. Whereas South Peninsula is deficient by 24%. Among all the meteorological divisions of South Peninsula, only North Interior Karnataka has received large excess rain of 83%. Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep and Rayalaseema are in normal rain category. Rest all the areas are either deficient or large rain deficient.
Monsoon surge seems to be weak, therefore we do not expect any significant increase in rainfall over South Peninsular India in the coming week. There may be isolated intense spell over South interior Karnataka and adjoining areas during the next 24 to 48 hours. But rainfall over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka will remain light to moderate.
Monsoon has covered parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu well before time but farmers must wait for at least next 8 to 10 days for typical monsoon rains to arrive which will help in sowing the crops.
