Winter 2019 to pave way for El Nino

January 17, 2019 8:55 AM |

Weather in IndiaEl Niño have been the talk of the town ever since the second half of 2018. After reiterating for long that El Niño would make an appearance during the fall, the time has finally arrived for one of the most dreaded weather phenomena.

As per the latest prediction by the leading weather models, there are 90% probability of El Niño conditions during January. In fact, weathermen are of the view that there 65% chances for El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019. Thereafter, dropping gradually with 50% chances or below during the Monsoon 2019 or we can say it would enter devolving phase. Following picture would help you understand better.

El nino weather modelAccording to AVM GP Sharma, President-Meteorology, Skymet Weather, the most favorable time period for El Niño’s growth and sustenance is from Autumn to Spring. During summer months, there are lot of seasonal variations which is not very conducive for sustenance of El Niño.

Talking about the Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs), they continue to settle above average across most parts of the Pacific Ocean. Here’s a look at the recent Nino Index (in °C):

El nino tempDuring December, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomaly in Nino 3.4 region, which is a deciding factor for declaring El Niño has seen some decline. However, it still continues to be in the neutral limits and also that some fluctuations in between are considered to be normal.


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