Earliest Arrival Of Monsoon Since 2013 Likely In Delhi, Intensity and Spread May Be Mild

Southwest monsoon has been missing anticipated dates of arrival for the last three days. Barring rains, most other parameters are in place. Change of winds, rising humidity, drop in mercury level and overall muggy conditions are precursors to the monsoon. There have been some patchy rains in some areas for the last two days but not adequate enough for the formal arrival of monsoon. Base station Safdarjung and Lodhi Road office recorded about 4mm rainfall each in the past 24 hours. However, the rains skipped the airport observatory Palam.

The monsoon arrival dates were revised for the country in 2019. Prior to that, the monsoon arrival date in Delhi was 29th June, which was preponed to 27th June. Since 2013, the monsoon has arrived earlier than the scheduled date on six occasions. The earliest arrival during this period was on 16th June 2013. Incidentally, this date coincides with the Uttarakhand tragedy in 2013, when the monsoon covered a large portion of the country, including Delhi, in a single day. Monsoon also has a record of coming early on 15th June in Delhi in 2008.

The east-west trough along the Indo-Gangetic plains in association with the monsoon systems developing over Bay of Bengal and later moving inland is the main trigger for arrival of monsoon in Delhi. Currently, the cyclonic circulation in association with the remnant of low pressure is marked over South Uttar Pradesh and extends up to medium levels. There is another cyclonic circulation coming up over West-Central and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal. The east-west trough joining these two systems is extending further up to West Rajasthan. The trough is presently running south of Delhi by a fair margin and therefore, may not lash any intense weather activity over and around Delhi today. Yes, the proximity of the trough may cause scattered patchy showers to announce arrival of monsoon in Delhi today. However, the event may remain a ‘damp squib’ to start with. Even if, following fleeting showers in some areas, the monsoon arrival is declared, the speedy showers, typical of monsoon flavor, will arrive only on 26th & 27th June 2025. Between 24th and 25th June, Delhi/NCR will witness light to moderate rainfall. Delhi/NCR will observe rainy monsoon days in the remaining part of this month, which is likely to spill over to the start of July as well.