Heat Wave Pockets Shrink To Minimal : Unlikely To Come Up Till Mid-May

Key Takeaways

• Widespread pre-monsoon activity has brought rain, storms, and temperature relief across India.
• Northeast and Sub-Himalayan regions continue to see persistent heavy weather.
• Most regions do not meet criteria for “true” heat wave conditions.
• Heat wave risk remains low till mid-May, with only isolated hot pockets.

Active pre-monsoon conditions have prevailed over large parts of the country. Rain, thundershowers, and dust storms have lashed states of Punjab, Haryana, East Rajasthan, Central & East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Odisha. Down south, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, and Kerala received a fair amount of rain and thundershowers. Northeast India, along with Sikkim & Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, has had persistent heavy weather activity for over one week. These are the pockets where the maximum temperatures are as low as 25°–27°C. Following this fairly widespread activity, mercury levels have eased over most parts, and extreme temperatures are limited to parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat, and West Rajasthan. Though temperatures over these sub-divisions are in excess of 40°C, they do not amount to heat wave conditions. At best, small pockets of Vidarbha are witnessing heat wave conditions, and that too is likely to abate soon.

Heat wave is declared when the day temperature reaches 40°C or more and the departure from normal is 4.5°C or more. Also, heat wave is announced when the surface temperature reaches or exceeds 45°C. All these pockets of Gujarat, West Rajasthan, and Vidarbha have normal maximum temperatures of 41°–43°C. The mercury needs to soar to 45°C or more to qualify for heat wave conditions, which is not the case. The highest maximum temperature yesterday was 44.6°C at Chandrapur (Vidarbha), which is about 2°C above normal. The maximum temperature at Jaisalmer and Barmer was about 44°C, around 2°C above normal. So practically, none of the regions qualifies for ‘true’ heat wave conditions. The hottest pockets like Banda, Prayagraj, and Varanasi, earlier hovering above 45°C, have now dropped to the low 30s.

Pre-monsoon weather activity is likely to increase between 03rd and 07th May over large parts of the country, except South & West Rajasthan, Gujarat, and the Konkan region. Temperatures will remain significantly suppressed till mid-May 2026. Therefore, heat wave conditions are unlikely to build up till around 15th May. However, parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat may experience searing heat, briefly slipping into heat wave conditions in isolated areas.