Monsoon Enters Weak Phase, Revival Likely Next Week
Jun 3, 2025, 3:48 PM | Skymet Weather Team
The southwest monsoon arrived quite early this season. The onset of monsoon over the mainland on 24th May was the earliest since 2009. The storm moved rapidly over the subsequent 2 days to cover nearly 40% of the area of the country. However, the monsoon current nearly stalled thereafter. On the western side, the NLM has been stuck at Mumbai since 26th May and the eastern arm has also been stagnant near Balurghat from 29th May onwards. Any significant progress is unlikely for the next week or so. Revival awaits the formation of a monsoon system over the Bay of Bengal.
Varying pace of monsoon is an in-built feature of intraseasonal changes. Monsoon ‘hype and lull’ go side by side during the four-month-long season. However, the striking feature is that the ‘quiet’ has hit at the start of the season, which is not very commonly observed. The daily rainfall across the country has dipped significantly.
Courtesy of heavy rains over the northeast region, the daily normal figures are still retained without any deficiency. Otherwise, the southern and central parts of the country, from where the monsoon ‘takes off,’ have reported minimal rains during the last three days.
The weak phase of the monsoon is likely to continue till mid-week next. In the meantime, pre-monsoon activity over the northern mountains and plains and residual effect over Northeast India will substitute the daily monsoon rainfall without much of shortfall. Yes, the rains will be rather sparse along the Western Ghats and South Peninsula, otherwise considered as bowl of monsoon showers, during the early onset phase.
A monsoon system is likely to form over Bay of Bengal, sometime next week. A precursor cyclonic circulation will appear on 10th June. Consolidation and reorganization will take another 48 hours. Revival of monsoon will start from Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and travel deep over Maharashtra between 12th and 14th June 2025. Monsoon current will invigorate all along the West Coast covering Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan Coast in a staggered manner.
