Southwest Monsoon Makes Deficit Start Over South Peninsula: Revival Next Week

The southwest monsoon arrived early this season. The scheduled onset date of 01st June for Kerala was preceded by more than a week. After making an onset on 24th May 2025 over Kerala, it rapidly advanced to cover nearly 40% area of the country in the next 48 hours. However, the current has nearly stalled since then. The northern limit of monsoon (NLM) has been stuck over Mumbai since 26th May and over Sikkim and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal since 29th May 2025. No major advancement is likely over the next week or so.

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Early arrival of monsoon and hefty pre-monsoon showers over the South Peninsula nearly drowned all the subdivisions with large excess rainfall between 1st March and 31st May 2025. However, after the initial ingress, the region has dried up. There is a large deficiency in excess of 50% of rainfall on a daily basis for the last four days. The only exception is Kerala, where moderate rains all along the north-south stretch saved the grace. There also the rainfall is also likely to reduce over the next 5-6 days. The overall deficiency may rise further during this week.

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The strong westerly stream, normally seen after the onset of monsoon, is missing all along the West Coast, from Kerala to Konkan. Northwesterly winds running nearly parallel to the coast are no good for monsoon bursts, generally observed in the early onset phase. The entire region has to bear with weak monsoon conditions for the next 7-8 days. Revival seems likely after mid-week next.

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A monsoon system is likely to come up over the Bay of Bengal in the next week. A precursor cyclonic circulation will form over the west-central Bay of Bengal on 10th June. Reorganisation and consolidation will take another 48 hours. The weather activity will commence with the coastline on 11th June, covering parts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. As it appears, the weather system may move a little south of the normal track, over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and further on to Karnataka and Maharashtra. The window for revival of monsoon is very likely to fall between 12th and 17th June 2025 for most pockets of the South Peninsula. Since the model accuracy drops after 4-5 days, this prediction will be observed, tracked, and updated, if need be.