Another Round Of Hot And Humid Conditions For Mumbai Shortly

The first two weeks of March remained hotter than normal for Mumbai.  Warm and sultry conditions were the hallmark of the first fortnight of March. The day temperature ‘shied away’ from breaching the 40°C mark and got arrested at 39.2°C on 11 Mar 2025, the highest temperature of this year so far. This heat factor eased out a bit yesterday. Base observatory Santacruz recorded a day high of 32.8°C, a notch below the normal and the lowest temperature since 05th Feb 2025. The temperatures are likely to rise for the coastal city and suburbs.

The day temperature for Mumbai is controlled by the sea breeze timings.  Normally, the sea breeze sets in by about 1300 hrs, and the temperature rise gets arrested instantaneously. Actually, the temperature drop is more imminent after the onset of sea breeze. Occasionally, when the sea breeze sets in around 1200 hrs or earlier, the day temperature does not lift beyond 30°-31°C. Today, the sea breeze had set in in the forenoon hours itself, and therefore, the maximum temperatures are likely to get restricted to about 31°-32°C. The meteorological conditions will undergo significant change, resulting in a rise in the mercury level.

A cyclonic circulation is likely over the central and eastern Arabian Sea, off the Konkan and Goa coasts. Another cyclonic circulation will form over parts of Maharashtra and the Peninsular India trough is likely to be active and extend from Marathwada to Kerala, across North & South Interior Karnataka. Under the influence of these two features, the wind pattern will change and become variable and turbulent along the Konkan coast.

The change in the wind pattern will extend the duration of land breeze and consequently delay the onset of sea breeze. These changes will be more prominent from 22nd March onwards and the temperature is likely to reach or exceed 36°C on 23rd March. The heat is expected to spill over to the next week as well and the first half of the week will be much warmer than normal.

Mumbai has the precedence of breaching the 40°C mark in the month of March. It normally happens in the second half of the month. The only exception was in Mar 2013, when the city observatory at Santacruz recorded 40.5°C on 07th Mar, and there was no repeat in the rest of the month. More often, the city breaches the 40°C mark in March, just for a day. The years 2013, 2015, 2018, 2019, and 2021 witnessed only a single occasion of temperature reaching or exceeding 40°C. The only outlier remains the month of March 2011, when the airport observatory registered temperatures in excess of 40°C twice. The mercury had shot up to 41.3°C on 16th Mar and lowered by a whisker to 41.0°C on 17th Mar 2011. The city did not find the score of 40°C in March 2009, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2022 and 2023. The chances for the mercury breaching 40°C during this month are rather less.