Skymet predicted that Monsoon 2021 will arrive on 30th May with a margin of +/- 2days. Despite two pre-monsoon cyclones over the Indian seas, the monsoon kept date with Skymet and entered Kerala today, two days before the due date of June 1. Prior to its arrival, the pre-monsoon showers were strong over most parts of the state.
A set of environmental conditions need to be fulfilled as a criterion for the arrival of monsoon. By and large, all parameters have satisfied the required threshold, essentially the rainfall and depth and speed of westerly winds over the Southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean. Rainfall amounts are verified from the available data on the official website.
Onset Rainfall Distribution-May 29 & 30 (mm)
Outgoing Long Wave Radiations
In the absence of any major monsoon trigger, the onset may be slightly mild. Conditions are favorable for its further advancement to more parts of South Peninsula and East Centra Bay of Bengal. Timely progress is expected over Northeast India. The formation of cyclonic circulations on either side of the coastline in the first week of June will push and strengthen the monsoon current.
Heavy rains with strong gusty winds are likely over the North Andaman Sea and chain of Bay Islands including Port Blair, Car Nicobar, Nancowrie, Hutbay, and Mayabander. Moderate rains are likely over many places with isolated heavy falls over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and Lakshadweep. Sea condition is expected to be rough during this time.