Monsoon Lingering Short Of Mumbai: Onset Unlikely This Week
Key Takeaways:
- Mumbai monsoon onset remains delayed beyond the normal June 11 arrival date
- Monsoon advance has stalled near South Konkan for nearly a week
- Mumbai rainfall remains extremely deficient with Santacruz recording just 13.1 mm rain
- The city could witness one of its most delayed monsoon arrivals on record
The monsoon onset date has already passed for Mumbai and the wait is likely to become longer. The normal arrival date is June 11 and there are no signs so far. Earlier, after the onset over Kerala on June 4, the monsoon maintained a good pace along the West Coast. It reached Harnai in the South Konkan region on June 8 and stalled thereafter. There has been no further movement of the NLM (Northern Limit of Monsoon) along the Western Ghats for the last one week. It may remain stationary for a few more days.
There is no weather system likely to develop over the Bay of Bengal, the main trigger for monsoon advance along the coast. Even the Arabian Sea remains barren and does not provide any push to the stream. The winds in the lower levels are north-north-westerly along the Konkan-Goa Coast. These are not good indicators for monsoon arrival and the city and suburbs will continue to reel under sultry weather conditions.
The Santacruz observatory has recorded mere 13.1 mm rainfall so far this month. Regional observatory Colaba is further drier with just 5 mm rainfall. The normal rainfall for the month is 526.3 mm. The city could be heading for the lowest monthly rainfall in the last about two decades. Earlier, the city recorded the lowest of 87.3 mm rainfall in June 2014. That month, along with June 2023, were exceptions when the city witnessed freak heatwave conditions during the monsoon month. In the absence of adequate rainfall, temperatures are also likely to rise.
There is another concern hanging over the city this season. The onset of monsoon may get stretched to become the most delayed one in historic records. As of now, this record was established in 2023 when the monsoon reached on June 25, 2023. Though it is a little premature to confirm, there is a very poor chance of monsoon reaching the city anytime soon. The possibility cannot be ruled out that the monsoon stream may coincide with its earlier outlier of June 25 or may even overtake this date.
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