Hat Trick of Low Pressure Areas Over Indian Seas: Vigorous Monsoon Over South India

Key Takeaways:

• Three low-pressure systems: Multiple weather systems across the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are influencing weather conditions over the Indian Ocean region.
• Heavy rainfall in South India: Tamil Nadu, Kerala, South Interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep face heavy to very heavy rainfall and localised flooding risks from October 23–26.
• Cyclone formation likely: The Bay of Bengal low-pressure area may become a depression on October 24, a deep depression on October 25 and a cyclonic storm on October 26.
• East Coast alert: North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Coastal Odisha face a potential cyclone threat, while the wider coastline up to West Bengal needs to remain vigilant.
• Forecast Validity: October 23–29, 2026 (Next 7 Days)

There are three low-pressure areas placed on either side of the coastline. An uptick in northeast monsoon activity is likely over the next one week. To start with, the South Peninsula will be lashed first by inclement weather, and later, the focus will shift to the east coast of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. The maiden storm of the post-monsoon season of 2026 is likely to evolve over the Bay of Bengal. The coastlines of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh will be at risk of hazardous weather over the next one week.

[Check your local weather forecast here]

The low-pressure area over the Arabian Sea has moved westward and lies very close to the Somalia coast. As expected, the system did not intensify much over the ocean due to a lack of heat potential. It is likely to cross the coastline anytime soon and weaken. Heavy rainfall at scattered places is likely along and off the coast. The system may weaken and become insignificant after another 24 hours. No effect is foreseen for the Indian region.

A low-pressure area is marked over the Comorin region and South Tamil Nadu. The weather system is causing rough weather conditions over Comorin, Maldives, Lakshadweep, Kerala and the oceanic areas surrounding these pockets. Another system in proximity to this feature is providing additional support to accentuate the weather activity. There is a cyclonic circulation over North Coastal Tamil Nadu, extending up to 7,000 feet, reinforcing and enhancing the span and scale of weather over a large area between the equator and 15°N. Heavy to very heavy rainfall, with a chance of flooding rains at some places, is likely over the next four days. For the Indian region, the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, South Interior Karnataka and the Lakshadweep region will be susceptible to unsafe weather conditions. This area will be battered, albeit in a staggered manner, between 23rd and 26th October. Finally, this feature will get subsumed by the cyclonic storm likely to come up over the Central Bay of Bengal.

Under the influence of cyclonic circulation over the Andaman Sea and adjoining parts, a low-pressure area has formed over the Southeast and adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal. The cyclonic circulation extends up to 18,000 feet. This is likely to become a depression tomorrow, a deep depression on 25th October, and intensify into a cyclonic storm the next day, on 26th October 2026. The maiden storm of the season is likely to head for North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Coastal Odisha. The available notice period needs to be utilised to prepare for the challenge of dangerous weather conditions. These storms continue to be mysterious and defy predictions of track, intensity and timelines. The entire coastline from Tamil Nadu to West Bengal, across Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, needs to be on alert and adopt utmost caution to meet any eventuality.