Cyclonic Storm Likely Over Bay of Bengal: East Coast on Alert

Key Takeaways:

• Cyclone development likely: A low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal may intensify into the first cyclonic storm of the post-monsoon 2026 season by October 26.
• Favourable conditions: Sea surface temperatures of 29–30°C, low vertical wind shear of 5–10 knots and supportive atmospheric conditions favour rapid development.
• Andhra-Odisha coast at risk: North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Coastal Odisha face a potential direct impact if the developing storm follows the projected northwestward track.
• Eastern states on alert: Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar may experience hazardous weather, depending on the system's intensity and movement.
• Forecast Validity: October 23–29, 2026

Under the influence of a cyclonic circulation over the Andaman Sea and neighbouring Bay of Bengal, a low-pressure area has formed over the Southeast and adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal. The cyclonic circulation extends up to 18,000 feet. The system is placed over the deep sea and has the chance to become the first cyclone of this season in the Indian Seas.

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A low-pressure area has developed over the Bay of Bengal and is centred around 16.2°N and 88.8°E. An area of convection around the consolidating low-level circulation and sharp cloud bands is observed over the Southeast and East-Central Bay of Bengal, nearly 400 km northwest of Port Blair. The system is over the open ocean surface and is placed in favourable environmental conditions. The vertical wind shear is low (5–10 knots), the sea surface temperature is warm (29–30°C), and there is moderate poleward outflow aloft. Models are in favour of speedy development. The potential for cyclogenesis and for the system to become the first storm of the season in the next 72 hours is high. The tropical storm, if formed, will be named ‘Arnab’, as suggested by Bangladesh.

The low-pressure area is likely to become a depression tomorrow and strengthen into a deep depression the day after tomorrow. Moving northwestward over the open and warm water surface, the system is likely to become a cyclonic storm on 26th October 2026. The coastline from Andhra Pradesh to Odisha will be very vulnerable to a storm strike. As past track records suggest, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Coastal Odisha are most susceptible to a direct hit from the storm.

After crossing the coast, storms have a tendency to weaken because of frictional forces. Also, they do not travel very far inland and tend to recurve northeastward. The most endangered region will include Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar. The weather system will be tracked, and updates will be shared accordingly.