Complete Withdrawal Of Southwest Monsoon Likely By Mid-Week Next

Key Takeaways:

• The Southwest Monsoon began withdrawing from West Rajasthan on September 19, 2026, and has already retreated from northern, western and central India.
• Further withdrawal is expected over the next three days, with most of eastern and northeastern India likely to be covered by October 13.
• Complete withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from India is likely by October 15, 2026.
• The Northeast Monsoon onset may coincide with the Southwest Monsoon's complete withdrawal or follow within approximately 48 hours.
• Forecast Validity: October 9–17, 2026.

The process of Southwest Monsoon withdrawal is very erratic. Normally, it takes four to six weeks from start to completion. But there are cases when it abruptly halts or speedily picks up and even maintains the timelines in copybook style. The normal date for the start of withdrawal from West Rajasthan is 17th September, and the completion date is 15th October. As and when the withdrawal line reaches about 15°N over the peninsula and the stream vacates the remaining parts of the country, the retreat is considered complete. The logic is that rainfall activity over the extreme South Peninsula, below 15°N, may commence even before the official arrival of the Northeast Monsoon, as is happening during the current season as well.

Once the process of withdrawal starts, it takes about 30 days to complete. However, the process has defied these guidelines on more than one occasion. In 2019, the withdrawal started on 9th October, with a delay of 39 days. But the stream completely withdrew within the next six days, and the retreat was completed on 16th October. During the La Niña years between 2020 and 2022, the withdrawal got extended to the fag end of October.

The Southwest Monsoon started retreating on 19th September 2026. The withdrawal is complete from the northern, western and central parts of the country. The line of withdrawal passes through Supaul, Ranchi, Sundargarh, Bargarh, Bijapur, Hyderabad, Belagavi and Panjim. So, on the western end, the retreat is nearly complete. However, on the eastern side, the rains are continuing over Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha and Northeast India. Conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal over the next three days, leaving just some portion of Northeast India.

As it looks, the monsoon withdrawal will be complete from the South Peninsula, Central and Eastern States by 13th October. By then, the monsoon will make an exit from the major portion of Northeast India, leaving aside Mizoram and Tripura. In the subsequent 48 hours, the retreat may be completed from the entire country. Possibly, the retreat of the Southwest Monsoon and the onset of the Northeast Monsoon may become simultaneous, or there may be a gap of at most 48 hours between these two milestones.