Will El Niño affect the Indian Monsoon in 2026?

Yes, El Niño generally impacts Indian monsoon rainfall, but its exact influence depends on intensity, timing, and support from other weather systems like IOD and MJO.

What is the current status of El Niño?

The Nino 3.4 index is close to the El Niño threshold, and ocean-atmosphere conditions are increasingly supporting its formation.

Can India still receive normal rainfall during El Niño?

Yes, India has witnessed both normal rainfall and drought conditions during past El Niño years, depending on supporting climatic factors.

Every El Nino Does Not Lead To Drought In India

By: AVM GP Sharma | Edited By: Arti Kumari

May 9, 2026, 2:15 PM

Image: AI-Skymet

Key Takeaways:

Pacific Ocean temperatures are rising rapidly, increasing the likelihood of a strong El Niño event in 2026.
Climate models indicate El Niño conditions may officially emerge within weeks.
Neutral IOD conditions and weakening MJO activity may still support monsoon progression over the Andaman Sea.
A weather system over the Bay of Bengal could help advance monsoon onset slightly ahead of schedule.

The Pacific Ocean’s continued rapid warming towards El Nino has firmed up the odds against a poor Indian Monsoon. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above-average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is based on Skymet’s proprietary weather database, internal forecast models, station observations, climatological datasets, and expert meteorological interpretation by the Skymet Weather team. While every effort is made to ensure scientific accuracy, weather conditions are dynamic and may evolve over time. This assessment is intended for informational purposes and should not be considered an absolute or guaranteed prediction.

Skymet is India’s most accurate private weather forecasting and climate intelligence company, providing reliable weather data, monsoon updates, and agri-risk management solutions across the country.