August Records Above Normal Rainfall: More Rains Ahead For Delhi

Key Takeaways:

• Safdarjung recorded 354.1 mm of rainfall in August, more than 50% above the monthly normal of 226.8 mm.
• Delhi/NCR has remained largely dry for the past five days as the monsoon trough stayed away from the region.
• Rain and thunderstorms are likely to return from Tuesday, with activity increasing during the late evening and night.
• The most intense and widespread spell is expected between September 5 and 7, followed by broader clearance from September 8.
• Forecast Validity: Next one week.

Delhi and its suburbs mostly remained dry over the last long weekend. Both observatories, Palam and Safdarjung, recorded zero rainfall for the past five days. The base station, Safdarjung, has registered 354.1 mm of rainfall for the month of August, against the monthly normal of 226.8 mm, a surplus of over 50%. In August 2024 and 2025, the observatory had accumulated 390.6 mm and 400.1 mm of rainfall, respectively. However, August 2022 and 2023 were the lowest in the last about twenty years, with total monthly rainfall of 41.6 mm and 91.8 mm, respectively. The highest-ever rainfall of 583.6 mm for August was recorded in 1961.

The monsoon trough is the main trigger for rainfall in Delhi around this time of the year. The trough was keeping a safe distance from the national capital during the last about five days. Currently, it is passing through Amritsar, Patiala, Bareilly, Sultanpur and Gaya, and thereafter dipping into the Bay. The northward position of the trough is never conducive to weather activity over any location. However, conditions are building up for a southward shift of the trough, and so the weather activity will increase relatively for Delhi/NCR.

The low-pressure area over the Northwest Bay of Bengal is now positioned over Gangetic West Bengal and North Odisha. The cyclonic circulation is extending beyond 20,000 feet and tilting southwestward with height. It is likely to move west-northwestward across Jharkhand, North Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh over the next 2-3 days. Monsoon will become active at many places and vigorous in some areas during the first week of September. There is a western disturbance over the northern mountains as an upper-air system. Under the influence of these two systems, the monsoon trough will get relocated to keep proximity with Delhi.

The chances of having any weather activity today are less. However, for the rest of the week, rain and thunderstorm occurrence will be quite likely. The activity will start sometime late afternoon tomorrow and increase in the late evening/night. The intensity and spread will be more between 05th and 07th September. The temperature may stay close to about 35°C today and tomorrow. The drop in mercury is likely from Wednesday onwards. Broad clearance of weather activity is likely from 08th September onwards. September may start on a rainy and pleasant note for Delhi/NCR.