Dry Weather Followed By Rainy Weekend In Delhi

Key Takeaways:

• Delhi is likely to remain mostly dry with no significant monsoon activity till September 10.
• Safdarjung recorded 34.1°C, around 5°C higher than the previous day's maximum.
• A fresh low pressure area is expected to form over the Bay of Bengal on September 10 and move inland from September 11.
• The monsoon trough may return close to Delhi from September 11, bringing brief spells of rain for the subsequent 4-5 days.
• Forecast Validity: Next 4-5 days.

Delhi and suburbs remained dry during the last 24 hours. The absence of clouds and a drop in humidity raised the day temperatures. Base station Safdarjung recorded a maximum of 34.1°C, a rise of 5°C from the previous day, but otherwise near normal. Repeat weather conditions are likely, and no significant monsoon activity is expected till Thursday, 10th September. The capital city has recorded 69.5 mm of rainfall between 01st and 08th September, and the mean monthly rainfall is 128 mm. More showers are likely around the weekend.

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The low pressure area over Uttar Pradesh has shifted close to the foothills of Central Nepal and is likely to break up over the same region. The remnant of the system may give scattered rain and showers over East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar for the next 24 hours, more distinctly along the foothills. Weather activity has exited West Uttar Pradesh, which was deluged on 06th-07th September. The movement of the low pressure has dragged the monsoon trough along, leaving fair weather conditions over West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Delhi.

The seasonal monsoon trough is the main trigger for Delhi during the monsoon. The trough gets activated either under the influence of a western disturbance across the mountains or a monsoon low along the Indo-Gangetic plains. Both systems are not anywhere near Delhi actively. The trough at the surface level is passing through Ganganagar, Rohtak, Dehri, Bankura, Haldia and dips into the Bay of Bengal. In the upper air, the trough has shifted north, even at the friction level of 3,000 feet. The safe distance of the trough to the north of the capital city will secure fair weather conditions around the Delhi area.

A fresh low pressure area is likely to come up over the Bay of Bengal on 10th September, and it will start moving inland the next day itself, on 11th September. The deep and quick penetration of the system inland will change the wind pattern all along the Indo-Gangetic plains. The monsoon trough is likely to get back and remain positioned close to Delhi from 11th September onwards. Though Delhi will be on the outer periphery of the core activity, showers will still be quite likely for the subsequent 4-5 days. This activity will occur in brief spells and mostly during the later part of the day and night hours. The day temperatures are likely to plunge yet again from 11th onwards and stay good till mid-week next.

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