Monsoon Wait Gets Longer For Mumbai: City May Head For Most Delayed Onset

Key Takeaways:

• Southwest monsoon has remained stalled near Harnai along the Konkan Coast for the last four days.
• The normal onset date of monsoon over Mumbai is 11th June.
• No low-pressure area or monsoon depression is likely over the Bay of Bengal till at least 20th June.
• Mumbai may witness a delayed monsoon onset similar to 2019 and 2023.

Southwest monsoon had set in over Kerala on 04th June 2026. Though there is no correlation of this with the onset date over Mumbai, usually it takes about ten days’ time to reach northern parts of Konkan region, including Mumbai. The normal date of onset over Mumbai is 11th June.

After the onset over mainland Kerala, the monsoon had picked up good pace along the West Coast. There were heavy rains over Kerala and Coastal Karnataka, and moderate rains over Goa. Monsoon current had reached Goa on the due date of 05th June. The monsoon stream did strike South Konkan Coast, but the process was somewhat slow. The northern limit of monsoon passes through Harnai along the West Coast and is stuck there for the last four days. It is unlikely to move to Mumbai anytime soon.

Earlier, there were some pointers for the monsoon to reach Mumbai with a delay of about 4-5 days, around 15th/16th June. However, those triggers are no longer seen and therefore, further delay is quite likely.

The most predominant feature for accentuating the monsoon current along the West Coast is formation of a low-pressure area or monsoon depression over central and northern parts of Bay of Bengal. There is no likelihood of any such system till 20th June and it could extend even further.

The West Coast and the Arabian Sea also remain devoid of any such stimulus. Whatever monsoon rainfall occurs along the Western Ghats will remain confined to Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and at best some bursts over Goa and neighbourhood.

There is lot of variability for the monsoon onset over Mumbai. Though on a large number of occasions, the monsoon makes it to the city within five days of the normal date, there are exceptions.

The last three years have been testimony to this wherein the monsoon made early, delayed and timely onset. Last year, the monsoon made the earliest onset ever recorded on 26th May 2025. This was repeated after nearly 70 years when the monsoon had made an early entry on 26th May 1956.

A year prior to that, southwest monsoon reached Mumbai on 09th June 2024. The most delayed onset was on 25th June on three occasions in 1959, 2019 and 2023. This season could be a repeat of the same and the delayed arrival of monsoon may narrowly coincide with the date.