Break-Monsoon Conditions To Continue : Relief Weather System To Form Over 'Bay' Next Week
Monsoon Takes a Break, Rain Deficit Deepens Across India | Image: Canva/Skymet
As on expected lines, the southwest monsoon activity has weakened over many parts of the country. Break-in-Monsoon conditions are prevailing, albeit not the typical one, yet somewhat similar to what normally happens in the month of August during the peak monsoon season. Pan-India rainfall has reduced and has been recorded below normal for the 8th consecutive day. Yesterday, actual rainfall of just 3.8mm was recorded against the daily normal of 9.4mm, a shortfall of 60%. The long period average rainfall between 01st June to 07th August has come down to 102% from its earlier high of 115% around 10th July 2025. A further drop is expected over the next 4 days and may touch just the normal for the season or even less.
Western and central parts of the country have nearly run dry. Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Madhya Pradesh have registered negligible weather activity.
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Down south, parts of South Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Kerala and interiors of Tamil Nadu have received scanty showers. The Northeast, otherwise one of the rainiest pockets, is also facing scarcity. There have been some decent showers over the eastern states of West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar. Also, Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Tamil Nadu, Telangana and adjacent parts of Vidarbha witnessed reasonably good monsoon activity.
All this activity is a normal pattern during the ‘break’ conditions of monsoon. Monsoon breaks invariably happen in the month of August and last for about 10 days or so. Yes, occasionally, they could be shorter or get prolonged, subject to the conditions of the Indian Seas. Essentially, a fresh monsoon system over the Bay of Bengal is needed to break the jinx. One such system is likely to form around 13th August 2025.
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The first half of the monsoon performed satisfactorily well. Both June and July observed desired temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. The months of June and July ended with a surplus of 9% and 5% rainfall, respectively. Overall, the season registered above normal rainfall of 106% of LPA. However, due to ‘break’ conditions, the rains have become deficit in August. During the first week, between 01st and 07th August, there was a shortfall of 30% rainfall. This trend is likely to continue till mid-month and reverse later. The month of August is short by about 19mm rainfall so far. Large deficiencies, if any, become difficult to catch up and may lead to less than average rainfall in August.
