Rain-Showers Likely In Delhi: Dry Weather Next Week

Key Takeaways:

• Safdarjung has recorded 74 mm of rainfall in September so far, against the monthly normal of 128 mm.
• Delhi can expect light and fleeting showers initially, with rainfall activity increasing from September 16.
• September 16 and 17 are likely to see the more prominent spell as the monsoon trough approaches Delhi and interacts with a western disturbance.
• Broad clearance is expected from September 20, and a prolonged break thereafter may initiate southwest monsoon withdrawal.
• Forecast Validity: Next one week.

Delhi region received light rainfall over the weekend. Friday and Saturday recorded 2 mm and 3 mm, respectively. Sunday remained dry over most parts of the city. Base station Safdarjung has registered a total of 74 mm so far in September against the monthly normal of 128 mm. The upcoming rain and showers will be mostly light in nature for the first two days, and moderate-intensity rainfall is likely between 16th and 19th September.

The remnant low-pressure area is marked over the tri-junction of South Rajasthan, Southwest Madhya Pradesh and North Gujarat. It is likely to move westward over parts of South Rajasthan and North Gujarat during the next 24 hours and later weaken and shift to South and Southeast Rajasthan in the subsequent 24 hours. The system lashed parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh with moderate to heavy showers yesterday. Ahmedabad recorded rainfall of 66 mm in the past 24 hours.

The low-pressure area will get diffused over Rajasthan and may merge with the seasonal monsoon trough. Presently, the monsoon trough, the main trigger for Delhi showers, is running far to the south because of the low pressure over Rajasthan and Gujarat. With the weakening of this system, the trough will move northward from 16th Sep onward to gain proximity to the Delhi region. Also, there is a western disturbance as an upper-air system moving across the mountains.

Under the combined influence of these systems, the capital city and neighbourhood are likely to have scattered rain and showers. These showers will be light and fleeting for today and tomorrow. Once the trough comes closer on 16th Sep, the northward pull of the western disturbance will act in tandem to increase the spread and intensity. Rains can be expected during this week between 14th and 19th Sep, but more prominently on 16th and 17th Sep. Broad clearance is expected from 20th Sep onwards, and a long break, if any, may initiate the withdrawal of monsoon as well.