Heavy Rainfall Over Rajasthan: Localized Flooding Likely Over East Rajasthan
The state of Rajasthan had an early onset of monsoon this season. More often, active or vigorous monsoon conditions have prevailed. Both West and East Rajasthan are rain surplus by a fair margin. West Rajasthan has an excess of 77% and East Rajasthan is in large excess with 135% rainfall. Heavy rains are likely over the state, more over East than West Rajasthan. Extremely heavy rainfall at some places may result in localized flooding.
The low-pressure area over West Bengal and Jharkhand has remained nearly stationary for the last couple of days. It is likely to move slowly westward over Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh in the next 48 hours. The wind convergence zone is placed slightly ahead of the center of the system. The cyclonic circulation of the low pressure will move to Southwest Madhya Pradesh and Southeast Rajasthan on 13th July 2025. Also, the axis of the monsoon trough will get dragged southward and will run across the elongated east-west oriented cyclonic circulation of the low pressure. This will accentuate the monsoon activity over the state between 13th and 16th July 2025.
In the first phase, East Rajasthan will have heavy rains on 13th and 14th July. Along with Jaipur, Alwar, and Ajmer, the places at risk will include Dholpur, Bharatpur, Sawai Madhopur, Dausa, Tonk, Kota, Bundi, Baran, Jhalawar, Banswara, Chittorgarh, and Bhilwara. Peak intensity and large spread of rainfall is likely on 13th July. Later, on 15th and 16th July, the rains will cover North Rajasthan and a few pockets of West Rajasthan. The far western posts of border areas may escape the monsoon fury. Ganganagar, Suratgarh, Anupgarh, Hanumangarh, and Mahajan will have heavy rainfall on 16th July. The weather conditions will start improving from 17th July onward, and broad clearance can be expected on 18th July and later.
