Scanty Rainfall In Mumbai: No Downpour Likely Next Ten Days

Key Takeaways:

• Mumbai's Santacruz observatory recorded 308.1 mm rainfall in August, resulting in a shortfall of over 45% against the monthly normal of 560.8 mm.
• Only 26 mm of rainfall was recorded between August 20 and 31, highlighting the subdued monsoon conditions towards the end of the month.
• Brief moderate showers are likely between September 4 and 6, but no major monsoon surge is expected.
• Light rains may occur in parts of Mumbai during the next about 10 days, while strong afternoon and evening sea breeze will offer some relief from warm and sultry weather.
• Forecast Validity: Next one week.

Mumbai has received sub-par rainfall in the month of August. In the last eleven days, the airport observatory, Santacruz, has recorded just 26 mm of rainfall between 20th-31st August 2026. Earlier, during the first half of the month, the city did receive 2-3 moderate spells. There was no three-digit rainfall during the entire month. The total for the month of August comes out to be 308.1 mm against the monthly normal of 560.8 mm, a shortfall of over 45% rainfall. Yes, the month of July was a deluge and registered 1481.8 mm of rainfall against the monthly average of 919.9 mm. The upcoming days of September are going to be no different, and subdued weather activity will continue.

Mumbai gets monsoon bursts under the influence of weather systems emerging over the Bay of Bengal and traversing right up to North Madhya Maharashtra and Southwest Madhya Pradesh. An active off-shore trough across the West Coast also triggers decent rainfall over the Konkan region. A strong westerly stream from the Arabian Sea, meeting the Konkan Coast head-on, also intensifies the monsoon surge over the coastal city of Mumbai. None of these catalysts are present there to enhance the monsoon activity.

There is a low-pressure area over North Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and the Northwest Bay of Bengal. This system will be tracking west-northwest but stop short of reaching West Madhya Pradesh. At best, the system will reach the central parts of Madhya Pradesh and adjoining border areas of Uttar Pradesh. This system will keep a safe distance from the Konkan Coast and is unlikely to stimulate any monsoon surge. The off-shore trough will remain weak, and the monsoon stream from the Arabian Sea will remain mild to moderate.

There could be a slight uptick in weather activity when the system arrives over Central Madhya Pradesh and South Uttar Pradesh. Moderate showers for a brief duration are likely between 04th and 06th September 2026. Otherwise, light rains only are expected in some parts of the city for the next about 10 days. The city has a normal of 383.5 mm rainfall in September. Strong sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours will provide relief from the otherwise warm and sultry conditions.