Southwest Monsoon 2025- Withdrawal Starts Earlier Than Normal

The southwest monsoon 2025 commenced withdrawal from West Rajasthan on 14th September, three days ahead of the scheduled date. The retreat started with the border posts of Rajasthan like Barmer, Jodhpur, Nagaur, and Ganganagar. Two days later, on 16th September 2025, it withdrew from some parts of Punjab, Haryana, and Gujarat. The line of withdrawal passes through Bhatinda, Fatehabad, Pilani, Ajmer, Deesa, and Bhuj. Further withdrawal is likely during this week from the northern plains and partially, from the mountains, as well.

Onset and withdrawal dates were revised in 2020, based on 1961–2019 data for onset and 1971–2019 data for withdrawal. Earlier, the stipulated dates were based on a very old dataset, 1901–40, obtained from 149 land stations. The current operational criteria for declaring withdrawal from extreme northwestern parts of the country was adopted in 2006. It consists of the following major synoptic features which will be considered, but not earlier than 01st September:

• Cessation of rainfall activity over the area for continuous five days.
• Establishment of anticyclone in the lower troposphere (850 hPa & below).
• Considerable reduction in moisture content as inferred from satellite water vapour imageries and tephigram.

Further withdrawal from the country is declared keeping the spatial continuity, reduction in moisture as seen in the imageries, and prevalence of dry weather for five days. The southwest monsoon is withdrawn from the Southern Peninsula and hence from the entire country only after 01st October.

Withdrawal of monsoon from any region cannot be construed as total cessation of rainfall in the near future. As it frequently happens over the northern parts, there could be some rainfall under the influence of westerly systems. The complete withdrawal from Northeast India, extreme eastern states like Odisha, and the deep interiors of central and southern parts invariably spills over to the second week of October. At times, the cessation of the southwest monsoon and the onset of the northeast monsoon has been simultaneous.

Withdrawal of monsoon from the northern and western plains leads to the second summer, more so for Rajasthan and Gujarat, wherein the temperatures start shooting to high 30s or low 40s. Places like Barmer, Jaisalmer, Phalodi, Bikaner, Ganganagar, Bhuj, Naliya, Deesa, and Patan breach the 40°C mark during the first week of October. Withdrawal of monsoon dictates a fair weather period for the western, northern, and central parts and it extends to most of November, as well. Yes, the threat of cyclones builds up on either side of the coastline during these two months, more frequent over the Bay of Bengal than the Arabian Sea.