Timely Onset Of Monsoon Over Kerala: Smooth Progress Will Remain Concern
Key Takeaways:
- Southwest Monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, three days later than normal but still within the standard range.
- Monsoon is expected to advance quickly along the West Coast, including Goa and Mumbai.
- Progress over central and interior Peninsular India may slow due to the absence of a strong Bay of Bengal system.
- Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana may witness below-normal monsoon activity during the first half of June.
The Southwest Monsoon set in over Kerala on June 4 and covered the entire state along with the southern tip of Tamil Nadu. Though the monsoon arrived three days behind schedule, it is still considered timely. The monsoon current has a standard deviation of nearly one week for its onset over Kerala, and the arrival remains well within the normal margin. In any case, neither the further progress nor the quantum of seasonal rainfall has any direct correlation with the onset date.
The onset over Kerala takes place under the influence of the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon. Earlier, the arrival of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea on May 16 was associated with the Bay of Bengal branch. There was no significant weather system over either the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal to pull the monsoon current over Kerala. The monsoon arrival is being attributed to its own internal energy, which marginally accelerated the cross-equatorial flow along with a feeble circulation over the Southeast Arabian Sea near Kerala and Lakshadweep.
The monsoon is likely to advance rather quickly along the West Coast, covering Coastal Karnataka, Goa and southern parts of the Konkan region. Mumbai is also likely to witness a timely monsoon arrival, within about three days of its normal onset date of June 11. The northeastern states have already been receiving adequate rainfall and may officially announce monsoon onset anytime soon. However, there could be some hiccups in the monsoon’s progress over the interiors of Peninsular India and the central parts of the country.
The emergence of a proper monsoon system over the Bay of Bengal is essential to push the monsoon current over eastern and central India. As per the normal schedule, by June 15, the monsoon usually covers large parts of Konkan, interior Maharashtra, South Chhattisgarh, the entire Odisha and West Bengal, while also advancing into Jharkhand and Bihar. However, there are no clear indications yet of a smooth monsoon progression over these regions. States like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana also face the risk of inadequate monsoon rainfall during the first half of June. These regions are likely to continue witnessing weather activity more typical of the pre-monsoon phase during the next four to five days. Nevertheless, these are still early days of the monsoon season, and the monsoon stream retains enough internal energy and potential to strengthen rainfall activity on its own.
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