Meteorological conditions are building up over Bay of Bengal(BoB) to anchor maiden storm of northeast monsoon season 2021. Yesterday’s low pressure is manifested as closed low level cyclonic circulation over southeast BoB. It has already become well marked and showing further signs of rapid intensification to a depression anytime soon, by today evening.
The satellite imagery depicts convective band of clouds, though a little disorganized, gaining circular shape along with feeder clouds in the rear sector, a sign of intensification. Subsequently, the depression may turn in to a cyclone ‘Jawad’, earlier than expected time. The storm will possibly have less than 24hr to reach the coastline of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.
Pinpointing its track and landfall will be realized only after the center of depression/deep depression gets clearly defined. As of now, the storm will reach the proximity of coastline by tomorrow evening. Cyclone will start impacting inclement weather conditions commencing 3rdnight and lasting till 04thmorning. Thereafter, weakened storm will keep lashing the coastal parts of Odisha and West Bengal for the subsequent 48hr.
Numerical models do not have a clear consensus about the track, intensity and landfall timings. Preliminary assessment suggest that the cyclone may not travel deep inland after hitting the coast and could keep brushing and scrubbing coastal areas of North Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. Visakhapatnam, Tuni, Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Parvathipuram, Bhimunipatnam and Pathpatnam of Andhra Pradesh will be at extreme risk of blustery weather conditions. As the weakened storm moves parallel along the coast of Odisha and West Bengal: Ganjam, Gajapati, Chatrapur, Brahmapur , Jagatsinghpur, Baripada, Digha, Contai and Sunderban delta region will be at high risk of heavy rains and flooding. Rough weather conditions will last till 06thDecember and ease out gradually later.
Deadly combination of heavy rains and strong winds will carry damaging potential of uprooting trees, snapping power lines and disrupting communication and connectivity. Rail, road and air traffic may be hit simultaneously. Storm surge and tidal waves may cause flooding and inundation of coastal areas. Vulnerable people in risky areas will need to be shifted to safer locations. Air effort may be needed to reach the marooned people, after the passage of storm. Available window till tomorrow evening be judiciously utilized to extend caution and adopt safety and security measures.