Delhi-February Heading For Dry Weather Month: Rise Of Mercury Ahead
Key Takeaways:
- February in Delhi remains rainless so far, with dry conditions expected to persist.
- Western disturbances will pass nearby, but meaningful rainfall chances stay minimal.
- Day temperatures remain above normal, signalling the gradual end of winter.
- Pre-monsoon-like warming may begin developing toward late February.
National Capital Region is going through a prolonged dry spell. February, otherwise the rainiest winter month, has remained rainless so far and the desiccated conditions will continue in the remaining days. Temperatures are also on the rise and have stayed above normal; moreover, the days have become warmer. Nights still retain their cool, albeit the mercury follows a rising trend there too. Base station Safdarjung recorded a day maximum of 27.5°C yesterday and a low of 11.6°C this morning, both above normal.
A pair of western disturbances is likely to pass across the northern mountains in quick succession. The first system will approach the Western Himalayas on 13th Feb but will remain too far and too mild to influence Delhi’s weather conditions. The subsequent one, between 16th and 18th Feb 2026, will have broader coverage and be slightly stronger. However, Delhi will remain on the outer periphery and stand a bleak chance of precipitation. At best, there could be a very light sprinkle in some pockets on 17–18 Feb.
Surface and low-level winds will become stronger around noon hours. These moderate winds will arrest any significant rise in day temperatures between 12th and 15th Feb 2026. Such strong surface winds are indicative of a seasonal change. As a fallout of a strong westerly jet in the higher levels, scattered high clouds are likely to appear late in the evening today and persist through tomorrow, gradually thinning thereafter. The weekend is likely to be warm, bright, and sunny. Winter is possibly on its last leg in Delhi, and the rising temperatures next week will be a precursor to the upcoming pre-monsoon season.
As per the model outlook, Delhi is unlikely to receive any measurable rainfall during the month. This has happened earlier when the capital city remained without a drop of rain in February 2017, 2018, and 2023. Last year, it barely broke the jinx by recording only 1.4 mm of rainfall. This year may follow the same track. Models suggest one or two brief showers on 18th Feb 2026, more likely over the southern periphery of the city and NCR. As the month progresses, the chances of any significant rainfall recede toward the second half.
