January and February are the rainiest winter months. Northwest India remains the major contributory region followed by East and Northeast India. The least share goes to the central parts of the country. The mountains of North India and the Islands of Andaman Sea and Lakshadweep are the likely rainiest pockets. Arunachal Pradesh, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep figured somewhat close to the normal range. Northwest India and Central India were the largest losers during the winter season, so far.
The Pan India rainfall in the month of January was under 5mm against the normal of 17.1mm. The normal rainfall was 19.2mm, earlier, till Jan 2018 and was downsized to 17.1mm in 2019. January 2025 has been the lowest, since 2018 when the month was nearly a washout with nominal rainfall of 2.9mm, having a countrywide deficiency of 85%. Jan 2025 is a shade better with a shortfall of about 70% rainfall.
The normal rainfall figures being small, the variability increases multifold. It is more so for the central and southern parts of the country, which contribute minimal amounts. States like Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Gujarat, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, North interior Karnataka and Telangana have received nil rainfall since 01st Jan 2025. On the other hand, courtesy frequent equatorial perturbations, Lakshadweep gathered a massive surplus of 146% rainfall.
The winter rainfall during La Niña years generally remains poor across the country, albeit with some exceptions. Lack of active western disturbances leads to scarcity of rain and snow in the mountains of North India. Winters so far have been warmer and drier for the plains of the North, West and Central parts of the country. A huge risk lies ahead in the month of February. It is rather difficult to cover up the deficiency incurred so far. Rather, February by itself does not look quite promising to retain its normal spread across the country.
