Fresh low pressure area is likely to form over North Bay of Bengal (BoB) on 13thAug. This system will have a history of monsoon depression travelling from South China Sea to Bay of Bengal across Vietnam, Laos, Thailand and Myanmar. Once over BoB, the low pressure will become well marked and may even become a depression before moving inland.
Earlier, a monsoon depression in the Gulf of Tongking was brewing in to a tropical cyclone. It just fell short of the intensity of tropical storm and made landfall as a monsoon depression. North Vietnam, North Laos and coastline of Southeast China was battered by stormy conditions accompanied with torrential rains and gale speed winds. The depression has reached in the proximity of North Thailand and is likely to move over central parts of Myanmar in the next 24hr. Subsequently, it is likely to weaken to a low pressure area and enter BoB. Favorable sea conditions will invigorate the low pressure and may intensify in to a depression over North BoB , late on 13TH August .
The monsoon system will cross Odisha coast on 14thAug. Between 14th and 16thAug, the weather system will move across central parts covering Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat. Vigorous monsoon conditions are expected during this period and stormy weather will lash many parts of these states.
On 13thAug, the extended convergence zone of the system will have moderate to heavy showers over Odisha, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, South Bihar, North Telangana and East Madhya Pradesh. On 14thAug, the rainfall belt will cover Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, North Telangana and East & Central Madhya Pradesh. On the Independence Day, the system will travel further west to have moderate to heavy rains over Vidarbha, Marathwada, North Madhya Maharashtra, Southwest Madhya Pradesh, South Rajasthan and North Gujarat. On the next day, the area of weather activity will shrink and remain confined to South Rajasthan, North Gujarat and Kutch. The entire region will be relieved of any significant weather activity on 17thAug.