Close on the heels of Monsoon system over Odisha, another low pressure area is likely to form over Bay of Bengal (BoB). A cyclonic circulation is marked over Gulf of Martaban and Arakan coast of Myanmar. This will enter over North BoB in the next 24 hours and is expected to turn in to a low pressure area. In the subsequent 24 hours, the system will consolidate further and may become well marked. The cyclonic circulation will partly move over land covering North Odisha, Coastal West Bengal and Bangladesh.
Unlike the predecessor low which will move across Odisha, South Chhattisgarh, South Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat, this system is likely to track slightly to the north in the close proximity of Indo Gangetic plains. Low pressure is expected to be placed over North Chhattisgarh, South Jharkhand and East Madhya Pradesh on 15thJuly. The weather system will spare Maharashtra and Telangana and rather focus largely on Madhya Pradesh. The convergence zone ahead of the center of the system will reach West Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan on 16thand 17thJuly. Heavy rains are likely over these parts during this period.
The weather system will move further north and possibly shift the monsoon trough over Indo Gangetic plains. Due to proximity of foothills few vortices are likely to develop along the stretch, across Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Moderate rains are likely to commence over Uttar Pradesh on 18thJuly. Much awaited good monsoon spell is likely over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal between 19th and 21stJuly.
Further prognostication of the pattern may not be authentic and is to be kept under observation. However, there are distant indications for the shift of monsoon trough, north of its normal position, first time in this season. In such an eventuality, heavy rainfall belt gets shifted to the foothills of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, North Bengal and Assam & Arunachal Pradesh.
