Fresh Rain-Snow Over Mountains Likely, Heavy Spell Next Week

Northern mountains have just remained quiet last week. Rain and snow deficit has increased further. Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh have a deficit of a huge 86% between 01st and 27th Jan 2025. The other two states, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand have a large shortfall of 79% and 85% respectively, during this period. Minimal weather activity is expected for the next two days, more so, in the next 24 hours. A twist in the weather conditions is likely, thereafter.

To start with, a mild western disturbance is likely to arrive on 29th Jan. Weather activity will be subdued and remain confined to the mid and higher reaches. The lower hills may just have a cloudy sky. This will be followed by another system passing across the region between 31st Jan and 02nd Feb 2025. This disturbance will be slightly stronger than the first one. Even the lower hills are likely to have rainfall.

An active western disturbance with its induced system is likely to arrive between 03rd and 05th Feb 2025. Since the model accuracy drops after the lead time of 4-5 days, it will be premature to comment on the extent and scale of weather activity. As of now, seemingly, a strong system looks to be on the horizon making ingress early next week. Subject to the accuracy of model predictions, fairly widespread and heavy rain and snow are expected between 04th and 06th Feb 2025. The system will be kept under observation for review, as and when required.