After observing some good rain in June, rainfall in the first week of July was subdued across the country. The countrywide rainfall surplus of 16% in June dropped to become normal in the first five days of July. The daily average rainfall for the country was also receding. For instance, 3.6 mm of rain was recorded on July 3 against an average of 8.6 mm. On July 4 rainfall amounts dropped further to record 3.3 mm against the average of 8.5 mm. It was the worst on July 5 with only 3 mm of rain being recorded against an average of 8.9 mm.
However, some good rainfall in the last two days, particularly in North, East and Northeast India has marginally improved the cumulative rainfall figures for the country. Rainfall in the country as a whole was recorded at 6.5 mm on July 6 against the average of 8.6 mm. And it looks like that significant drop in daily rainfall amounts will get arrested for the next few days. Though, it will not be sufficient to turn the rainfall amounts into surplus.
According to senior weather forecasters at Skymet, the pace of Monsoon varies and keeps getting slowed down for a week, which is absolutely normal. June ending with a countrywide rainfall surplus of 16 per cent is not a huge margin as the monthly average rainfall for the month itself is low. So one or two spells of heavy rain pushes up the rainfall figures to a large extent.
However, for a large part of the country July is the peak month for Monsoon rains. Therefore, the rainfall figures are high and any phase of subdued rainfall during the month pulls down the rainfall figures. Also, Monsoon is never simultaneously active across the country. Some areas do miss out on rainfall activity.
This is why weathermen at Skymet do not want to press the panic button as there are two more spells of good rain expected in the country during the second half of the month. The first spell of rain from July 6 is already giving good amounts of rain in North and East India, which will last for 3-4 days.
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