During the Southwest Monsoon season, along with the northeastern part of the country, Western Ghats remain the rainiest resulting in heavy rains throughout the season. However, this time, Monsoon rains have shown a slightly different behavior. All the three regions of Konkan and Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala have not shown an outstanding performance as such.
The month of June had begun on a promising note with all the three regions witnessing surplus rains to a good percentage. In fact, the month of June ended on a surplus of 43 percent for Konkan and Goa, 17 percent for Coastal Karnataka and 15 percent for the state of Kerala.
However, the month of July was fairly well in the beginning but after mid-July, the rain performance did slow down. Coastal Karnataka also saw lesser rains and the same was for the state of Kerala. By the end of the month, all the three states had consumed their June surplus but remained on the positive side only. Thus, Konkan and Goa were rain surplus by 23 percent, Coastal Karnataka by 1 percent while Kerala saw rains being surplus at 7 percent.
Come August, and rainfall activity took a complete backseat over the Konkan and Goa region while Coastal Karnataka saw some rains in comparison to Konkan and Goa but if compared to Kerala, Coastal Karnataka has been dampening enough. On the other hand, Kerala saw mammoth rains which led to the worst deluge the state had seen in at least a century. In fact, God’s own country was reeling under floods for more than a week.
Thus, by the end of the month of August, Kerala saw a surplus of 35 percent while Konkan and Goa and Coastal Karnataka were rain surplus by 8 and 7 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, the first few days of September until the 9th have been on the subdued side only. Thus, most of the surplus has been consumed even further.
Currently, Konkan and Goa as well as Coastal Karnataka are rain surplus by just about 4 percent each. However, due to excessive rains in August, Kerala continues to maintain its surplus of 31 percent. The slow and tempered down performance of Monsoon over the Western Ghats can be blamed on the inactive off shore trough and the absence of any other system in proximity of these areas which could give some good rains over the entire West Coast.
Now, weathermen expect Monsoon rains to remain on the lower side only for the entire West Coast. It has only been one third of the month and all the three states have consumed their surplus to some extent. During the next ten days also, nothing miraculous is expected for these states in terms of rains.
The West Coast which is the rainiest pocket during the Southwest Monsoon season and is responsible for driving the Monsoon rain figures. Heavy rains over these areas can swing the Pan India Monsoon figures upward while less rains can cause them to dwindle.
The worrying sign here is that an anti-cyclone is coming up over the Arabian Sea which will suppress the cross equatorial flow thus, northwesterly winds will occur which will further cause reduction in rainfall activities.
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