As anticipated, a low pressure area is likely to form soon over Northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB). This will be the maiden low of August 2022, drenching central parts of the country. The stall of monsoon activity over the core monsoon zone will rev up again. A speeding monsoon system will run through the east-west corridor from Odisha to Gujarat over the next one week. The hiatus of relatively weak pulse of monsoon, dropping daily rainfall below the stipulated average, will end soon. The seasonal rainfall reaching 114% of long period average (LPA) in mid July and crashing thereafter to 106% now, is likely to get arrested.
Presently, a cyclonic circulation has formed over Northwest and adjoining West Central BoB, extending up to middle levels of the atmosphere. It is likely to consolidate further over the same area during next 36hr. Following substantial organization, a low pressure area is expected to form by 07thAug, off Odisha and West Bengal coast in the BoB. The favorable oceanic conditions may lead to its further intensification to a well marked low pressure area or even a depression over the subsequent 24hr.
Once manifested as organized cloud cluster, likely in the next 36hr, sharply turning winds and the convergence zone of the system will extend deep inland. As such, the weather system is likely to cross partly over land on 08thAug. An elongated east-west axis of the low pressure will have a shear zone extending from Coastal Odisha to Central Madhya Pradesh. Later, over the subsequent 48hr, the confluence zone will extend across North Maharashtra, West Madhya Pradesh, South Rajasthan, Gujarat and Konkan.
Between 06th and 10th Aug, this weather system will impact weather conditions, lashing very intense rains across Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat. The peripheral of the system will extend the inclement weather conditions over Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. With the copious rains likely at many places, localized flooding and disruption of essential services will need attention.
The remnant of the weather system will enter the Northeast Arabian Sea on 11thAug. As usual, it will shift along the Pakistan coastline and head for Oman and Persian Gulf. Bay of Bengal is likely to become active again with yet another system, expected to emerge around end of next week.