In keeping with, record low pressure areas forming over Bay of Bengal (BoB) during September, yet another active weather system is likely to form over BoB around 10thOctober. The earlier trail of such systems flaunted September as the 2nd most rainiest since 1983, deluging the month with 135% rainfall of long period average(LPA).
Also, the last system of the league, churned 2 cyclonic storms, one each on either side of the coast line, Gulab and Shaheen. The 1st week of October is running over 30% surplus and is likely to be drenched with another wave of heavy rains around middle of the month.
A cyclonic circulation is likely to form over Northeast BoB, in the proximity of Gulf of Martaban and coastal Myanmar on 09thOctober. This feature will reorganize and transform in to a low pressure area over the subsequent 36 hours. This weather disturbance will be aided by the remnant of yet another cyclone brewing over West Philippines Sea, as it happened in case of cyclone Gulab. Remnant of a tropical storm Dianmu in the South China Sea had travelled across Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar to emerge in the Bay of Bengal.
A tropical storm formation alert has been sounded in that area again and a cyclone is expected to form within next 24hr. Presently, the tropical depression 92W is undergoing cyclogenesis and very soon a named storm will emerge in the South China Sea. Over the next 4-5days, this storm will move northwest across Vietnam, Laos and Thailand.
The weakened storm, as a cyclonic circulation will travel up to Thailand and Myanmar and linger around that area, to finally merge and aid the pre existing weather system over Northeast BoB and North Andaman Sea.
Low pressure area in the BoB will confront favorable environment to grow further. As such, these weather systems have very high potential to develop in to cyclonic storm. The longer sea travel provides enough time to strengthen and gain severity. Cyclone season has already begun, a little early call this year. Under approving environmental condition with adequate heat potential and moderate wind shear, Bay of Bengal remains on a cautious watch for emergence of yet another storm, early in the 2nd half of October.
