Southwest monsoon is refusing to budge and remains precariously static across the foothills of Punjab and Haryana. This stream had earlier touched the peripherals of Punjab and Haryana on 13th June and halted thereafter. The tail end of the monsoon line passes through Ambala and Amritsar covering a minuscule portion of Punjab and Haryana and the rest still lurking for the longest period in the recent past. Courtesy decent pre-monsoon showers, particularly during the middle of the month, June has recorded above-average rainfall by 17% and 20% for Punjab and Haryana respectively.
In the absence of easterly winds across Indo Gangetic plains, the eastern arm of the monsoon has gone weak, stagnating the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) for over 2 weeks. Presently, 3 states, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan await completion of the onset of monsoon. Being the last pickets, advance gets invariably slow for Punjab and Haryana. By virtue of the large geographical area of the arid state of Rajasthan and lack of push, the monsoon takes baby steps before reaching the finish post of West Rajasthan. A long haul of the stream between East and West Rajasthan is quite understandable but an indefinite delay over Punjab and Haryana is rather rare.
Monsoon had a sprint earlier to cover eastern and central parts of the country, reaching the doorsteps of Delhi in just 10 days. The seasonal stream is sulking now for the last 15 days without any hope of immediate relief. Though, the normal date of monsoon arrival for this part of the country is June end and start of July, but its early arrival in the neighborhood speculated before time incursion over the left out areas.
Environmental conditions are still not favorable for an early advance and therefore the wait is likely to get longer. A strong push is needed for the monsoon current to march past these pockets. The push comes either with the formation of a fresh low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal and traveling right up to these states or an active western disturbance pulling the easterly stream over this region. The former stands a better chance than the latter. However, the revival does not seem likely in the next 7 days. There are chances of sporadic showers between 02nd and 04th July, possibly getting accounted for the last pre-monsoon spell over Punjab and Haryana. 2nd week of July is offering lot of hope amidst prolonged state of despair.
