Monsoon 2021 is raging too many twists. It has kept the agriculture bowl of North India (Punjab and Haryana) guessing for its likely arrival. Southwest Monsoon gathered speedy pace and covered 80% of Indian territory in just 10 days. It nearly halted thereafter and has kept the remaining parts of North India on tenterhooks. An extended quiet posture after an athletic prowess over south, center, and eastern parts is raising anxiety among the farming community.
Though the normal date of onset of monsoon over these parts is still about a week away, before time arrival over many other parts but disdain for the crop intensive region is raising concern. At one point, the monsoon was expected to take a leap over Delhi and Haryana by mid-June, but its abeyance for over a week is looming the uncertainty larger than expected. Environmental conditions are not promising any quick breakthrough to tide over this stalemate.
The time and space distribution of monsoon rainfall for the first 3 weeks of June is quite satisfactory. South India and central parts are surpluses by a big margin. The core monsoon zone of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Bihar, otherwise vulnerable to monsoon vagaries, is adequately protected with decent seasonal rains. There is pan India surplus of 37% as of 21st June with south and central parts recording excess of 24% and 58% respectively. This does give a sense of cheers to the farming community as these reserves can absorb the likely shortfall of poor rains in the last week of June.
Further advance of monsoon over remaining parts of west Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Rajasthan appears to be rather slow. Environmental factors do not seem to be aligning favorably for an early breakthrough. Numerical models, the backbone of predictions, do not suggest any sustained rainfall over the region for the next week. This period may get extended further to run through 1st week of July. Quite probable that monsoon onset may overshoot its normal dates for the leftover pockets of North India. While south, east and central parts can share the joy of surplus rains, North India will have to endure the delay for an uncertain period.