After having a sprint in July, the southwest monsoon has entered a dry phase. Monsoon ‘break’ conditions have settled and are likely to become stronger bringing a lean phase of the monsoon activity over large parts of the country. Rains are getting cornered to a narrow belt, running close to the foothills and northeast India. The monsoon trough, the main driver of seasonal rains, has distanced itself far to the north of its normal position. Such a situation warrants heavy to very heavy rainfall in select pockets of east and northeast India.
Earlier, in July, the monsoon had a free run, helter-skelter at times, ravaging some parts of the south, central, western and northern parts of the country. Eastern parts remained like distant cousins to observe subdued monsoon for a longer duration. Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal observed large deficits. Courtesy, few decent showers in the last couple of days, rain deficit has been reduced over Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal.
In accordance with the ‘break monsoon’ pattern, a stretch of heavy rains extends from Uttrakhand, foothills of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sikkim, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya. Moderate to heavy rains, albeit low in intensity, also spill over to plateau areas of Bihar & Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. Some pockets of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu over South India also come up for scattered showers during the ‘break monsoon’ conditions.
The complete stretch from Uttrakhand to Sikkim, across the foothills of Nepal, seldom gets affected simultaneously. Heavy weather leaves some gaps and the eastern half is always more vulnerable to inclement weather conditions. Rains in the catchment areas and hills of Nepal, coupled with downpours over the Chinese region adjacent to Arunachal Pradesh together, increase the risk of flooding over Bihar and Assam. Bihar rivers like Gandak, Burhi Gandak, Kosi, Baghmati, Ghaghra, Mahananda and mighty Brahmaputra and its tributaries over eastern parts run the risk of going in spate during the ‘break monsoon’ conditions.
‘Break ‘ conditions are likely to prevail for more than a week. Cumulative rains and cascading effect will bear the risk of flooding, through rivers and water bodies, over next one week or 10days. Exercise caution to adopt and prepare for safety measures. Situation gets reversed only with formation of fresh monsoon system over Bay of Bengal which in turn drags the monsoon trough southward. There are no early signs of any such development for the next week.
Other than the areas mentioned above, the rest of the Indian region mostly goes silent. Monsoon goes rather weak over the plains of North India, Western parts like Gujarat& Rajasthan. Rains will be far and few for Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. Entire South Peninsula, barring coastal parts of South Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu, also get seized of any significant weather activity. Already with rain deficiency of 39%, the state of Kerala may end up with drought like conditions, very soon.