
Northwest India has been experiencing a series of western disturbances throughout the winter season, particularly in December 2024, which brought substantial snowfall over the hills and rain to the plains of the region. However, the intensity of these disturbances has been weaker in January, leading to a contrast in the weather patterns. Between January 1 and 19, the country experienced a significant rainfall deficiency of 61%, with northwest India particularly impacted, showing a deficiency of 68%. Despite this, certain regions have recorded varied rainfall totals. Haryana has seen an excess of 22%, while Chandigarh reported an 18% surplus. Rajasthan, notably, has received substantial rainfall, with a large excess of 62%.
Several regions in northwest India, including Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and western Uttar Pradesh, have recorded scattered rainfall on multiple occasions this month, primarily due to western disturbances and cyclonic circulations induced over Rajasthan and neighbouring areas. These rainfall events have been relatively light but have provided some relief from the dry conditions.
Looking ahead, a fresh western disturbance is expected to reach the western Himalayas on January 22, bringing another spell of light to moderate rain to parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and northwest Uttar Pradesh. This rain, anticipated on January 22 and 23, is not expected to be very heavy but could feature a few intense spells, particularly over Delhi, western Haryana and parts of Uttar Pradesh. These rains may help reduce the maximum temperatures in the region to some extent, offering temporary relief from the unseasonably warm weather seen recently.
Along with the decrease in maximum temperatures, the minimum temperatures are also expected to fall after January 24, as the impact of the western disturbance dissipates. However, once this rain spell concludes, dry weather is expected to return, and conditions over the northern plains will remain dry for at least one week.
While the rainfall during this period may not be heavy enough to address the significant water deficit in the region, it will help break the dry spell and provide some respite to farmers and residents in northwest India. The weather patterns over the next week will likely be influenced by the lingering effects of the disturbance, followed by a return to dry conditions.