The onset of Monsoon this year was weak. Until the first half of June, the pan India rain remained less than normal. Northwest and Central India were large rain deficit.
Rain activities picked up pace during the second half of June and by June 22nd, Monsoon rain of the country was break even. Soon after, the weather of Northwest India and most parts of Central India went dry as the humid easterly winds were replaced by dry and hot westerly winds.
As on June 24th, the rain deficiency was -4%. We expect the rain deficiency to creep up further as revival of Monsoon seems to be weak until June 27. The east west trough will once again move to south over Northern Plains leading to the increase of easterly and South easterly winds from Bay of Bengal.
Monsoon is expected to revive once again from June 28. There will be fairly widespread rain over Central India as well as over northwest parts of the country. We expect Monsoon to end with a normal rainfall in June. First week of July seems to be rainy for central and Northwest India. During initial period of July, there may be few good spells of rain over Western Rajasthan as well as Kutch region of Gujarat.