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Post Cyclones, Northeast Monsoon on way to recovery, rainy week ahead for Chennai, Tamil Nadu

November 16, 2019 3:15 PM |

Monsoon in India

With back to back cyclones forming on either side of the Indian coasts, Northeast Monsoon had taken a back seat. With this, the cumulative rainfall surplus for Peninsular India which was whopping 54% as on October 31, now stands consumed at 26% as on November 15.

In fact, the main beneficiaries of Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and South Interior Karnataka was surplus by good margin. However as of now, only Kerala and South Interior Karnataka are rain surplus to the tune of 38% and 65%. Meanwhile, rains in Tamil Nadu are now deficit by 7%, followed by Coastal Andhra Pradesh with 2% of deficit rains and Rayalaseema just on the borderline with zero rainfall.

According to Skymet Weather, these powerful storms i.e. Cyclone Maha and Cyclone Bulbul prevailing simultaneously in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal respectively, have disrupted the Monsoon wind pattern. As a result, Monsoon rains vanished completely from Southern Peninsula, barring few isolated pockets.

Tamil Nadu was the main sufferer, for which Northeast Monsoon is a lifeline that contributes more than 50% of the annual rainfall during the three-month long season. In fact, Chennai has been worst affected, with city recording 279 mm of rains as compared to normal average of 456.2 mm from October 1 to November 15, resulting in 39% of rain deficiency.

Northeast Monsoon rains are on peak during the month of November, but it has been disappointing month.

Northeast Monsoon on revival path in the coming days 

The Northeast Monsoon is now on the revival path, with moderate rains returning to parts of Tamil Nadu and adjoining Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the last 24 to 48 hours. As per the weathermen, clearance of cyclonic storms has led to reestablishment of the seasonal wind pattern of northeasterlies, leading to return of rains.

Besides this, remnants of the cyclonic storm Nakri have also reached Central Bay of Bengal, further strengthening the northeasterly winds. As a result, we can expect light to moderate rains with some spells of heavy rains in between over Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next 4-6 days. Chennai rains would also return, with moderate rains to drench the entire city now.

Rayalaseema and Kerala would also see light to moderate rains in the coming week, while South Interior Karnataka including Bengaluru would see light showers.

Thus, next week would see gradual improvement in the cumulative rainfall deficiency for the Peninsular India as well as for the entire country. However, Tamil Nadu though would see improvement in deficiency but complete revival is unlikely.

Image Credit: NDTV

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