After covering entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, Southwest Monsoon 2017 has now started its journey towards Kerala. According to Skymet Weather, the Southwest Monsoon 2017 is likely to make onset over Kerala around May 29, with an error margin of +/- 3 days.
The official date for the beginning of the Monsoon season in India is June 1 and a late of two-three days is considered to be normal.
At present, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is passing through Latitude 5°N/ Longitude 80°E, Latitude 7°N/ Longitude 85° E, Latitude 10°N/ Longitude 90°E, Maya Bandar and Latitude 16°N/ Longitude 98°E.
On and off pre-Monsoon rain and thundershowers have already been going on over the parts of Kerala. Weather models are indicating that these showers are likely to intensify by May 25, making conditions favourable for the arrival of Monsoon over Indian mainland.
We foresee that the three major criteria of rainfall, wind field and outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) for the onset will be fulfilled by that time. Models are already suggesting that wind field will start showing positive signs by May 25.
For rainfall, at least 9 out of 14 available stations should receive 2.5 mm or more rain for two consecutive days.
Image credit: Telegraph
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com