Southwest Monsoon arrived 3 days before schedule over mainland Kerala. Thereafter, the pace was sluggish and performance also under par. Monsoon rainfall deficiency in the early days rose to 43% in the 1st phase between 01st-11thJune. Recovery started 15thJune onward and break even zero-zero was achieved by 22ndJune. However, weak monsoon conditions again increased the deficit to 10%. Shortfall may go up further by 1-2% before resuming normal for the last 2 days of the month.
Monsoon had taken 3 long pauses at regular intervals. The 1st halt was short of Goa, from 31stMay to 09thJune. The eastern arm of monsoon covered entire northeast India in one go on 03rdJune. Thereafter, it was a long pause between 03rd and 12thJune. Even after resumption, the current moved at a snail’s pace to cover most of Bihar and a break again.
Northern limit of monsoon (NLM) is stuck at Churk (Uttar Pradesh) from 17thJune onward till now. Arabian sea branch also made a dead stop earlier from 16th to 26thJune near Porbandar. Following good rains over Saurashtra and North Gujarat on 27th June, it has now covered most of Gujarat, leaving just a trail.
Southwest monsoon will now enter in the 3rd and final phase. Both, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal branch, will move in tandem to reach most parts of the country in the next 10days. Many parts of Uttar Pradesh will have rains, today and tomorrow, thereby shifting the NLM, covering most parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the next 48 hours. During this period, monsoon will also reach on the outskirts of Delhi and East Rajasthan. These pockets are likely to get covered in the subsequent 24hr. Conditions will be favorable for the monsoon current to sweep entire Gujarat, more parts of Rajasthan and few parts of Haryana and Himachal Pradesh, simultaneously.
As per the normal dates, southwest monsoon reaches the last posts of West Rajasthan by 08thJuly. Looks like the stream is right on track to meet the deadline. Last year, the onset phase got completed on 13thJuly 2021. Advancement of monsoon over any area may not be construed as continuous spell of clouds and rains. Intermittent wet and dry spells are inbuilt features of monsoon. Establishment of monsoon trough, extending from Ganganagar to Kolkata, across Indo Gangetic plains, will be the chief monsoon driver for the north, east and northeastern parts of the country from 1st week of July onward.