Tropical cyclone Kompasu, equivalent to Cat-I hurricane is sailing over open waters of South China Sea. The storm is centered about 19.5°N and 151.5°E, 500km southeast of Hongkong and 520km north-northwest of Manila, moving westward with a speed of about 20kmh. The cyclone is estimated to have winds of the order of 90kmh and gusting in excess of 100kmh. Kompasu is heading for Chinese province of Hainan.
Cyclone Kompasu is moving over marginally favorable environment with adequate sea surface temperature and moderate wind shear. It is not expected to intensify further and is likely to make 1st landfall over coast of central Hainan, tomorrow evening.
Thereafter. the storm will enter Gulf of Tonkin to gather some pace. It will continue moving westward and is likely to make 2nd landfall along the coast of North Vietnam on 15th October, early hours. Under increased vertical wind shear and frictional effects of rugged terrain of Vietnam, the storm will rapidly weaken, leading to its dissipation over northern Laos.
The weakened remnants of this storm are expected to move across Thailand as a cyclonic circulation. This weather system is likely to emerge over Gulf of Martaban and adjoining North Andaman Sea, tentatively on 16thOctober. Favorable environmental conditions may revive this in to a low pressure area.
The climatology and the numerical models suggest growth of this system over the open waters of Bay of Bengal. North Andaman Sea and East Central Bay of Bengal need to be kept under close observation for any further development.