The weather of East India has almost been dry since last many days. This prolonged dry spell has further increased the rain deficiency of East India. East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Gangetic West Bengal are rain deficient. Between June 1 and July 8, Bihar is deficient by 24%, Jharkhand 44%, Gangetic West Bengal 46%, and East Uttar Pradesh by 58%.
Axis of monsoon trough is running south of its normal position over Central part of the country. Despite humid winds from Bay of Bengal, weather has been dry over Indo Gangetic Plains including Eastern parts of the country. We do not expect any significant weather activity to commence over east and Central Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal.
There may be isolated to scattered rain over Southern districts of Jharkhand and isolated pockets of Gangetic West Bengal. But most parts of Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal will experience it dry and humid weather conditions.
Rain activities are expected to commence over Northwest India as Western and of axis of monsoon trough will travel to north. However, the Cyclonic Circulation over Northwest and adjoining West Central Bay of Bengal will keep the eastern end of axis of monsoon trough south of its normal position. Until unless monsoon trough travel to North, rain will not occur over east India. Weather is expected to remain dry over these States for at least next 3 to 4 days.
Rain deficiency will increase further. Isolated to scattered light rain with one or two moderate spells are expected to occur over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and parts of West Bengal on July 12 and 13. Rain activities will not be heavy during this period. On and off isolated light rain may continue for subsequent 3 to 4 days. But we do not expect any significant relief from ongoing dry and hot weather conditions.